Thinking in Bets
Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
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Thinking in Bets
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Narrated by:
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Annie Duke
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By:
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Annie Duke
About this listen
Wall Street Journal bestseller!
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handing off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values, and even rewards, the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.
Includes a bonus PDF of charts and graphs.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.
©2018 Annie Duke (P)2018 Penguin AudioListeners also enjoyed...
Critic reviews
"A big favorite among investors these days."–The New York Times
"A compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital... Recommend for people operating in the real world."–Marc Andreessen
"Duke’s discussion is full of wisdom and also of fun, warmth, humor and humanity. Her sharp, data-driven analysis comes with a large lesson, which is that losers should be willing to forgive themselves: Sometimes the right play just doesn’t work."–Cass Sunstein, co-author of Nudge
What listeners say about Thinking in Bets
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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- Pavell
- 01-04-20
brilliant
One of the best non fiction books I've listened or read. I will definitely listen to it again
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- Anonymous User
- 28-06-23
Amazing.
The only thing that bothered me was the amount of times I had to stop and take notes. This book blew my mind.
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Overall3 out of 5 stars
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Performance4 out of 5 stars
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Story3 out of 5 stars
- Furry Cheese
- 01-12-23
Giving up
The book has great promise, but I’ve been listening for hours, and she’s still giving anecdotes describing the problem. Don’t have time to wait for the recommendations.
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- Jason
- 06-09-19
Surprising insights into the world of decision making
I really enjoyed this book, after it being recommend by a trader friend - it certainly helped me put some of previous business ‘failures’ into perspective, and to realise that the outcome is not always the result of poor decision making...
Highly recommended to anyone in business, or interested in trading in any of the markets
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Excellent
Excellent book with a ground breaking thought process, already using it for my day trading.
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1 person found this helpful
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Overall4 out of 5 stars
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- The Vikid Truth
- 29-07-18
Poker, Game Theory and Discipline
A good all-round read but a little longer than it needed to be in my opinion. The premises and conclusions are good, it will get you thinking for sure and I hope, help you make better decisions.
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- Kindle Customer
- 14-03-20
Annie Duke is a brilliant Mind!
if you're interested in better decision making and seeing reality clearly through better and holistic lenses. read this
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- Jack Dickinson
- 02-12-19
Excellent E Book
Really enjoyable and engaging listen
Thought proking content mixed with theory based and real world applications and analysis
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- Kindle Customer
- 14-11-20
fantastic and actionable book.
Incredible and very insightful book. Many actionable takeaways and very interesting to listen to and ponder over and likely summarise and write about. I especially enjoyed the forwards projection both in the positive and negative version of it.
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- HarryGordon
- 13-08-20
A different perspective on how to think!
Fabulous book (audiobook) talking about the psychology of a poker player and the things learnt that equate to the real world.
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