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Superforecasting cover art

Superforecasting

By: Philip Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Narrated by: Joel Richards
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Summary

From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters".

In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future - whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and is destined to become a modern classic.

PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying reference material will be available in your My Library section along with the audio.

©2015 Philip Tetlock Consulting, Inc., and Connaught Street, Inc. (P)2015 Audible, Inc.

What listeners say about Superforecasting

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book presents a new way of thinking

I enjoyed the audiobook. very easy to grasp the key points on how to reach good judgement. how our approach to forecasting and analysis needs to change to include more aggregation and more variables.

gives insight on the good judgement Project and the outcomes.

few key messages for professionals:
1) consult across sectors
2) aggregate
3) use a base score
4) incrementally improve forecasts and prediction and regularly review works
5) test the validity of data
6) don't fall for pundits :)

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40 people found this helpful

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Bit wooly

This book took a very long time to go going and when it did I thought I might as well have got Thinking Fast And Slow as it covered so much of the same ground. There were very few worked examples really and a lot of waffle.

The book was literally read word for word from the printed version and used terms like "the figure" a few times. The course material was pathetic and very half-hearted, a few figures in a PDF with no context or explanation.

The appendix was one of the most interesting parts and I realised that the whole purpose of this book seems to be to advertise the author's organisation and to pay for his team's "super forecasts".

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33 people found this helpful

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Not much substance.

Plenty of anecdotes but little in the way of superforecasting guidance. This book didn't achieve the goal in my opinion.

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26 people found this helpful

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A practical guide on reducing cogntive biases

What did you like most about Superforecasting?

To me, the superforecasting is a perfect practical guide to exercise some of the principles laid out in Kahneman's book, Think fast and slow. In the book, the author has laid out a set of concrete strategies to make effective forecast and i especially like the idea of constant beta, which is so true for my work.

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8 people found this helpful

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Feels like common sense

Doesn’t offer anything revolutionary and the methods offered all seems like common sense, despite linkages to other research.

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7 people found this helpful

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Look into my crystal ball

This is the strange story of a group of people who spend large proportions of their lives "predicting" what they consider to be the probability of certain events. They are asked to ponder such unknowns as the probability that unemployment rates in certain a certain country will be more or less than a certain level on a certain date, or the likelihood that exchange rates between certain currencies will fall between a certain range. Many of the people who partake in this pastime analyse every known piece of data to collate algorithms which they input into their models to provide their estimates. Naturally, some of them produce answers that are marginally better than average and also better than mere random predictions and these people are given the title of "Superforecasters". This all seems harmless enough until you hear that the US government takes the predictions of these Superforecasters very seriously indeed and is likely to use this "intelligence" to implement major policy initiatives. This book is intriguing and chilling in equal measure. I wonder how many of them predicted the coronavirus outbreak? I suspect not many, but if their crystal balls really did give advance knowledge of this pandemic then these people really should have their palms crossed with silver.

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4 people found this helpful

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Excellent!

Firstly, most comfortable with the narration.

I thoroughly enjoyed this book. Hats off as the story weaved its way through so many facets of forecasting and what influences and differentiates forecasters from 'super forecasters'.
Fascinating, thought inspiring, I found myself gleefully immersed and entertained in and of a World I had given little prior thought to.

Recommended.

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4 people found this helpful

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Thought provoking throughout!

A thoroughly enjoyable listen. The authors very clearly lay out what it means to be a critical thinker. The book focuses on how to use this for prediction but obviously using these life edicts you stand to make much better decisions in pretty much everything. It's certainly not an easy process but definitely worth the effort.

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3 people found this helpful

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one of the best books I listened to

good use of history and examples, very straightforward language and easy to understand, concept conveyed

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3 people found this helpful

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Incitfull and entertaining

Extremely interesting and full of useful information. Although it is a bible of forecasting, it is so much more and has major sections about team work, medical and military history and much more. Highly recommended.

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2 people found this helpful