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Walmart isn't sitting on tariffs. They instead rolling back more prices understanding what Chipotle just found out the hard way. The burrito bowl restaurant reported its first sales decline since the lockdowns, and the reason why has everyone from airlines to Walmart scrambling.

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Bloomberg Walmart Amps Up Discounts as Rivals Weigh Tariff-Driven Hikes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/walmart-amps-up-discounts-to-lure-cost-conscious-customers

Bloomberg Walmart Keeps Price Pressure on Suppliers After Beijing Pushback
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/walmart-keeps-price-pressure-on-suppliers-after-beijing-pushback

CNBC Chipotle is seeing a ‘slowdown’ in consumer spending as 2025 gets off to a rough start
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/23/chipotle-mexican-grill-cmg-q1-2025-earnings.html

Bloomberg American Air Is Latest US Carrier to Give Up on 2025 Forecast
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/american-air-aal-pulls-full-year-outlook-on-soft-travel-demand-worry

Bloomberg United Airlines Is So Unsure About the Economy It Offers Two Profit Scenarios
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/united-air-flags-recessionary-risk-while-keeping-profit-target

CNBC Alaska Airlines warns of slower demand as second-quarter profit outlook falls short
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/23/alaska-air-alk-1q-2025-earnings.html

SPG Composite PMI flash April 2025
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/9ee36c52b8a649adada211c1842512be

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While the whole world seems convinced the rest of it is rotating away from Treasuries, the actual evidence unequivocally shows something very different. This isn't a one-time relationship, either. Instead, a deep fundamental basis that connects repo, interest rates foundations, global banks, and the recent deflationary developments.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Traders View Treasury Auctions as Litmus Test for Foreign Buyers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-23/us-treasury-auctions-offer-latest-clues-on-foreign-buyers-strike

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Another day, another major warning this time once again from the Swiss. This one is a critical dollar signal. Even though the mainstream gets it completely backward, that diminish the significance of the surge. Plus, it is being corroborated by others along with changes to macro interpretations even among official bodies like the IMF.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

SNB's Martin Schlegel December 12, 2024
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-12-12/snb-s-schlegel-on-interest-rate-decision-negative-rates

IMF WEO April 2025
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025

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We're moving out of the theoretical impacts from tariffs and global weakness and into the reality of the situation. The first data from April is coming in from a variety of sources. China is seeing major reactions, as did South Korea. Hardly being spared, the response in Philly manufacturing was near-historic. Here comes the data for all those dependent.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

CNBC Trade war fallout: Cancellations of Chinese freight ships begin as bookings plummet
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/16/trade-war-fallout-china-freight-ship-decline-begins-orders-plummet.html

Bloomberg Shrinking Korea Exports Send Global Warning on Trump Tariffs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-21/south-korea-s-early-trade-data-show-exports-shrank-after-tariffs

Hankyoreh BOK warns of negative economic growth in Q1, hinting at another downgrade in May
https://www.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_business/1193165.html

Conference Board March 2025 LEI
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators

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Foreign governments are selling large quantities of Treasury securities, including the Chinese. Several commentators have therefore suggested there is a growing probability China devalues the yuan. While all of these results and possibilities are indeed related, not all foreigners are selling dollar assets. According to the same data, this group has been a buying hand over fist.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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A return to historic low interest rates in Europe is now practically guaranteed. Chances for ultra-low and maybe even zero is becoming too much to ignore. More importantly, why Europe has become a leader of the pack in the race to the bottom.

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ECB Press Conference April 2025
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is250417~091c625eb6.en.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YWkRPdC79M

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There are way too many critical financial and monetary signals at crisis levels right now. The 2008 or 2020 comparisons are all over the place. The latest to reach these numbers is derived from silver. By itself, what it has done is alarming. Combined with everything else performing similarly, it's too much to ignore. The reason why is what all these together really mean, exactly what we investigate here.

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A big move in Japan today, with yields dropping and the yen rising. Both were matched by some truly grim developments and warnings from around the world, everything from AI to the Bank of Canada's extreme case and then some truly grim results in New York. Or, exactly what JGBs and JPY are signaling themselves.

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Bloomberg Nvidia Curbs and ASML Warning Spur Global Tech-Stock Rout
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/nvidia-supplier-stocks-drop-on-latest-china-export-restrictions

WTO April 2025 Global Trade Outlook
https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_outlook25_e.pdf

FRBNY April 2025 Business Leaders Survey https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/Survey/business_leaders/2025/2025_04blsreport.pdf?sc_lang=en&hash=F63E9C1D24FCF84A22217C915C713718

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