An entire batch of corporate reports from retailers to computer-makers, just in time for the key holiday season's critical moment. Each one warning that consumers in the US just aren't there, being held back. Why? The government also reported today with the answer to that question, the one factor that ties it all together.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Inflation-Battered Consumers Are Going to Extreme Lengths to Nab Holiday Deals
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-27/black-friday-deals-in-us-have-been-transformed-by-inflation

Bloomberg Kohl’s Troubles Deepen as Retailers Call Out Weak Spending
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-26/kohl-s-cuts-sales-outlook-on-weaker-spending-on-clothes-shoes

CNBC Retailers saw a dismal fall quarter.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/consumers-retailers-post-election-economic-outlook-rcna181794

CNBC HP forecasts first-quarter profit below estimates on sluggish demand in PC market
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/26/hp-earnings-report-q4-2024.html

Bloomberg Dell and HP Inc. Fall After Reporting Disappointing PC Sales
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-26/dell-reports-sales-that-miss-estimates-on-setback-for-pc-market

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Japan's yen has diverged from other currencies over the past few weeks, strengthening against the dollar. That suggests more carry trading dynamics, an interplay between different versions of them. Yes, there is more than one carry trade and understanding the distinctions is key to getting a sense of possible vulnerabilities here.

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Reuters Explainer: What are Japan's tactics based on latest suspected intervention?
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/what-are-japans-tactics-based-latest-suspected-intervention-2024-07-18

BIS Bulletin The market turbulence and carry trade unwind of August 2024
https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull90.pdf

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Several critical financial measures continue to drop, reaching rather obscene comparisons. At first, that doesn't seem to make any sense; how would today be seen as similar to February 2009, for example. However difficult the economy is now, it certainly isn't that bad. What these measures are indicating go beyond specific moments, instead providing clues about a progression.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

WEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim Rickards
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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU