The big headline, of course, this week is Iran. The White House says Iran has everything it needs to build a nuclear weapon. That’s where we are. Trump has about two weeks to decide whether to launch an attack. The reporting right now focuses on what kind of strike it would take to actually stop the program — could our bunker busters get the job done, or are those centrifuges buried so deep we’d need to soften the ground with conventional bombs first? There’s even been talk — not a plan, just a technical example — of how only a tactical nuke could fully destroy Fordo. That’s not where we’re at, but it tells you how seriously the Pentagon is gaming this out.

And honestly, I don’t see a deal coming. Iran’s regime can’t afford it. Giving up the nuke means giving up the one thing that lets them project power, and domestically, it would be political suicide. You don’t stay in charge in Tehran by backing down on Israel and nukes — not unless you’re planning an escape to Moscow and retirement in a palace somewhere. That’s not happening. My bet: Fordo gets hit. And when it does, the question is what follows.

The Elon-MAGA Rift Deepens

Meanwhile, Elon Musk continues his very public, very messy split with Trump World. After his earlier apology tour seemed to smooth things over, Musk reignited tensions by calling Trump advisor Sergio Gore a “snake.” This all goes back to their feud over NASA leadership and White House staffing — and it’s clear Musk isn’t letting it go. Vice President JD Vance jumped in to defend Gore, and the White House insists Gore is fully cleared and doing his job. The result? Elon drifts further from the MAGA core. He wanted to be at the table, but he keeps setting fire to the chairs.

And look, this is classic Elon. He’s always clashed with people he once partnered with — OpenAI, Trump, now Gore. He moves fast, burns bridges, and expects to build new ones just as quickly. But politics isn’t tech. There’s only so many seats at the table, and right now, he’s playing himself out of them.

ICE Raids, Reversals, and the Trump Balancing Act

Immigration remains the other pressure point. Trump’s team initially paused ICE raids targeting agriculture and hospitality — a move that shocked his hardline base. But now they’re back on, with priority given to workers with criminal records. Tom Homan, Trump’s border czar, is clear: enforcement continues, but it’s targeted. The message to farmers? There are legal ways to hire, and if Congress won’t fix the system, they’ll enforce the laws that exist.

It’s classic Trump tension: the balance between policy purity and practical impact. He built his coalition on immigration hard lines and anti-interventionism. That’s what set him apart. Now, those promises are being tested — at home and abroad. And we’re about to see how far he’s willing to push before the cracks show.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:51 - Iran

00:05:29 - Solving Immigration with Andrew Heaton

00:26:54 - Update

00:27:27 - Elon

00:31:07 - ICE Raids

00:33:43 - Solving Immigration with Andrew Heaton, con’t

01:00:42 - Wrap-up

This is one of those moments where it feels like something fundamental is shifting. The MAGA coalition — that mix of influencers, voters, and operators who’ve been the core of Trump’s political power — looks like it’s fracturing. I’m not saying it’s done, I’m not saying the whole thing comes crashing down, but I’ve never seen this kind of strain. Not since Trump came down the golden escalator in 2015. And it all comes down to two issues: immigration and foreign intervention. The two things that defined Trump as a candidate. The two things that made him stand out in a crowded Republican field. The two things that made him president — twice.

Immigration and the First Crack

We’ve talked for years about how immigration shaped MAGA. It took what had been a fringe issue and turned it into the centerpiece of Republican politics. Build the wall. Deport the illegals. It was simple, powerful, and resonated in ways that shocked the establishment. Trump was the first in a generation of Republicans to put his full weight behind it, and he changed the party forever. That’s why what happened last week matters so much. Trump told his government not to conduct ICE raids at hotels, farms, and meatpacking plants. That’s not a small adjustment — that’s a major walk-back from the hardline stance that’s been central to MAGA identity. And it didn’t take long for the backlash to hit. MAGA influencers — the same folks who gave Elon the cold shoulder when he crossed Trump — came out swinging. This time, they were swinging at Trump.

Trump reversed himself pretty quickly. But the damage was done. That moment — that decision to pause the raids — showed a crack in the coalition. It revealed a gap between what the base expects and what Trump is willing to deliver when faced with real-world pressures. He doesn’t want grocery prices to spike. He doesn’t want vacationers complaining about hotels. And so he blinked. That’s what happened. And even though he tried to patch it up, the fact that it happened at all is what matters.

Iran, Fordo, and the Intervention Dilemma

Then there’s foreign policy — the other pillar of Trump’s MAGA appeal. Trump ran against the Iraq war. He ran against regime change. He ran against endless wars. And for four years, he mostly delivered. No new boots on the ground. When he struck, it was fast and targeted — think Soleimani, not Baghdad. But now, here we are, staring down the barrel of something that looks a lot like Iraq all over again. The question on the table: does America bomb Fordo, Iran’s underground enrichment facility, for Israel? And if we do, what comes next?

Trump believes Iran can’t be allowed to have nuclear weapons. Tulsi Gabbard, his own director of national intelligence, says Iran isn’t close. That’s daylight between the president and his intel team. And MAGA sees it. They see the build-up. They see the echoes of Iraq. And they’re scared. Scared that Trump is about to cross the one line they thought he never would. Scared that this isn’t just about Fordo — that this is the start of something bigger. Something with boots on the ground. Something that breaks the promise of America First.

MAGA’s Nightmare Scenario

If you asked MAGA voters their nightmare scenario, this would be it. Regime change in the Middle East. A war that drags on. A betrayal of the core principles that brought them to Trump in the first place. The immigration reversal shook them. The Iran situation is terrifying them. And if Trump does decide to hit Fordo, that might be enough to fracture the coalition for good — at least for some.

Trump’s legacy on foreign policy could go one of two ways. If Fordo is hit and that’s the end of it, maybe he walks away stronger, having prevented Iran from going nuclear without a long war. But if this spirals — if we get drawn into regime change, nation-building, boots on the ground — it could end his presidency before the next election even starts. MAGA was built on promises. And right now, those promises are under stress like never before.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:40 - The End of MAGA?

00:23:15 - Update

00:24:40 - Minnesota Dem Assassination Arrest

00:33:11 - SALT

00:37:27 - Israel-Iran

00:43:44 - The Px3 Focus Group (with Matt Donnelly and Paul Mattingly of Ice Cream Social)

01:30:44 - Wrap-up