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The Theory That Would Not Die

How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy

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The Theory That Would Not Die

By: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
Narrated by: Laural Merlington
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About this listen

Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok.

In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers and listeners, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years - at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA decoding to Homeland Security.

Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.

©2011 Sharon Bertsch McGrayne (P)2012 Tantor
History Mathematics World Submarine France
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Critic reviews

"If you are not thinking like a Bayesian, perhaps you should be." ( New York Times Book Review)

What listeners say about The Theory That Would Not Die

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excellent & enjoyable

it was as lovely as it is. Author has put significant amount of time and effort.

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Interesting

Interesting book, bit long at some times. Could be more focused on explaining the theories than on facts

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New developments in statistics breathlessly told

It's a pretty good history of Bayesian statistic, giving a good overview of the reasons why people are excited about it. Perhaps overly enthusiastic, both exaggerating the differences to other types of statistical reasoning and never making it entirely clear what distinguishes Bayesian from frequentist approaches, nor indeed what statistical reasoning is about to begin with.
The narrator is not the worst I have heard, and generally did a reasonable job of making an understandably modulated aural text. But as is often the case with scientific topics, no thought was given to finding a reader who is actually familiar with the vocabulary or the people. Thus, "theorist" consistently became "theororist", John von Neumann became "Newman", and Jerzy Neyman became "Neiman". Among others. It was still eminently listenable, but irritating.

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    3 out of 5 stars

Interesting book let down by poor production

Would you be willing to try another one of Laural Merlington’s performances?

The general narration was rather flat but the lack of research into common pronunciation was extremely grating. Not just the foreign (and tricky) words like "Aberystwyth" but even common words are tripped over.

Any additional comments?

I would have preferred a little more detail into the actual theorem.

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If at first you don’t succeed. . . .

This was a long listen. It had rather too many examples of how the theory succeeded.

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Interesting topic but disappointing exposition

The book contains a lot of academic and military history regarding Bayesian statistics, which is moderately interesting. But the actual examination of Bayes theorem/formula is very superficial. I am left quite unsatisfied. The basic Bayes equation is certainly true under a very simple interpretation in terms of predicates and percentages. So where does the controversy arise? In guessing the so-called-prior distribution, it seems. But Bayes formulae itself does not care about what is prior and what is posterior --- it is just a relationship between the conditional probabilities A|B and B|A. And it follows logically from the equation P(A&B) = P(A)*P(B|A) = P(B)*P(A|B), which surely must be true. Do frequentists deny that? That seems unlikely. So after listening carefully to the whole of this book, I am disappointed that I could not clearly explain the difference between a frequentist and Bayesian view.

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A worthwhile challenge

If you know about Bayes this will probably add little to you. However, from a blank slate came a deal of confusion as well as some understanding. At the end I realised that I was Bayesian and happy to be one.

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